Date: 08 01 2002
Mathematical Models and Simulations
Subject: DEMOVAC Projection of the Cattle and Grains of Argentina
Made for: INTA, the Argentine Institute of Agricultural Technology
Argentine has in the average a cattle population of nearly 55 million cows, being meat and grains the major items of exportations. The government was deeply interested about knowing the projections of meat and grains exportations working with a sustainable national policy, that is to establish a global and na´ve approach of the whole economy on simple but sound basis. They needed a model to answer the two following questions: ┐Is it possible to increase exportations at least five times maintaining the same quality (absolutely organic) of our exportations and at the same time keeping enough food for domestic consumption and at the same time maintaining the quality of our lands, our prairies?. If that is possible, then ┐how?.
We did a model that was baptized Demovac, which stand in Spanish for model for cows' demography. It could be extended to any kind of animal population, men include. This model behaves like the total population, like a single n-dimensional cow that grows or shrinks along the time, representing the total cattle asset. This model works coupled to an agricultural model for grains because land use is shared between them and for that reason the project was titled CYGAM, which in Spanish stands for Argentine Meat and Grains for the World. The model demonstrate that is perfectly possible to multiply by five exportations in 17 years without altering the ecosystem and even improving the nutrition level of the Argentinean people.